how to identify sharp money in sports betting

Square bettors love to pound the favorite while sharp bettors roobetofficial.com would simply wait for bookmakers to adjust their odds before taking the underdog at an artificially inflated price. Betting splits are valuable for the NFL, NBA, baseball, hockey, and more. For instance, public money often favors popular sports teams, creating inflated odds or spreads.

NFL Public Betting Consensus Percentages & Splits for This Week

These “beards” haven’t been flagged by the sportsbook as sharp, so they’re able to wager a ton, at least for a little while. Betting splits are broken down by point spread, total points, and moneyline, and then again by % handle and % bets. In this particular example, the numbers run pretty close together, with most of the money and tickets on the Philadelphia Eagles and the Over. If you’d like to take your betting strategy to the next level, consider using services like Versus Sports Simulator, which combines math-based analytics with customizable game predictions. Armed with these tools, you’ll be better equipped to turn the odds in your favor.

For example, if 75% of bets are on a -7 favorite but the line moves to -6.5 or -6, this indicates professional bettors are taking the underdog despite public sentiment. This “reverse line movement” is the strongest indicator that a fade opportunity exists. For you as a bettor, understanding this dynamic explains why “fading the public” (betting against what the masses are doing) has a reputation as a winning strategy. Sportsbooks largely profit from the public, so going the opposite way of heavy public bets often aligns you with the house and (hopefully) the sharps.

Even if the reverse line movement was a result of sharp betting, it won’t necessarily help bettors that scour public betting reports. In the above example, the Packers + could be a profitable wager, but at +2.5 it’s likely not. That half-point might be worth cents since it crosses a key number. There’s a common belief among bettors, journalists, and even some sports betting analysts that sportsbooks consciously try to balance action on both sides of NFL wagers. Back in the early days of sports betting this claim had some merit, but it’s a bookmaking philosophy that’s mostly gone by the wayside. When it comes to statistics, public betting splits are the belle of the ball.

What Are NFL Public Betting Splits?

But that’s not always the case, and blindly following the handle percentage in such instances is not a sure-fire way to tail sharp bettors. You will find the public bet and money percentages for each game of the March Madness tournament above. There will be some NIT games mixed in as well, so be sure you read the label under each matchup. For example, Las Vegas’s Westgate SuperBook is known to welcome sharp bettors, because they adjust off that info and let the sharps essentially guide them to the correct line.

• On a weekly basis that’ll happen often enough, but over the course of many seasons, they’re going to be down approximately 4.55% of their total betting handle.
• That being said, it is possible that the money is being bet indirectly by sharps.
• – Get current spreads, totals, and moneyline odds for all upcoming games this week here.
• Say, for example, 42% of the number of bets are made on the underdog Jets, but 51% of the overall money is on them.

NFL Betting Percentages: Bet Percentages vs. Money Percentages

Understanding the public betting trends can be useful when deciding which side you are going to place on a particular day. For example, if over 70% of the public’s money is on the Kansas City Chiefs, bettors may consider joining that group. They may also decide to go against the trend if they find value in the opposing team’s line, as it is likely pretty high if such a high percentage is on the Chiefs. Public money in sports betting shows where the general public is leaning on a specific bet, whether it be moneyline, spread, or total. For example, if 65% of bettors are on the Colorado Avalanche to beat the Nashville Predators, the public money is on the Avalanche.

Of course, if there are injuries, suspensions, or other factors that could organically alter the line that movement should be attributed to those before reverse line movement. Rather, you’re looking for specific situations where public bias creates mathematical value—then exploiting those situations systematically and repeatedly. Betfame does not privately contact members offering special services. In the event anyone contacted our members claiming to be from Betfame, kindly ignore them as we are not liable for any damages caused by them.